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Half the time Ragavan wont be a noteable card by Turn 4, with dash preserving some long term equity

Aside from the cards you play, and the modal cards that appear in sets - which are just cards with multiple modes of casting - its hard to get a feel for that in Magic: The Gathering

Where the binomial distribution tells us the probability of getting a specific number of successes with replacement (i.e., equivalent with shuffling your deck, revealing the top card, noting whether its a land or not, then shuffling again and repeating), the hypergeometric distribution takes into account that card draws are, in fact, not independent (i.e., telling us the probability of getting a specific number of successes without replacement, where cards arent reinserted into the deck after being counted as a success or not)

Save this for spells that specifically target your commander or high-impact board wipes

Pilgrim's Eye